Bitcoin and certainly altcoins continue to come under pressure as their footholds sell out. Can altcoins including Bitcoin and MATIC initiate a short-term recovery? Crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay examines the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
- 1 An overview of the cryptocurrency market
- 2 BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and DOGE analysis
- 3 ADA, MATIC, DOT, LTC and UNI analysis
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
Stocks, bonds, and the cryptocurrency market witnessed sharp declines in 2022. Therefore, investors faced a very turbulent year. According to a report by the Financial Times, as of November 30, the performance of a classic portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds is at its worst since 1932.
The next big question plaguing crypto investors is whether the pain in Bitcoin (BTC) is over or whether the downtrend will continue in 2023. Analysts are divided in their views for the new year’s first quarter. Some expect a drop to $10,000, while others expect a rally to $22,000.
Research and trading firm Capriole Investments remains uncertain about the near-term. But he says in the latest edition of the Capriole Bulletin that Bitcoin gold could replicate the explosive bull run of the 1970s. If that happens, he presumes Bitcoin will likely exceed $600,000 in the next few years. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and DOGE analysis
Bitcoin fell below the close support of $16,559 on Dec. This indicated that the narrow gap was resolved in favor of the bears. The next reinforcement on the downside is $16,256.
The bears tried to push the price below $16,256 on Dec. But the long tail on the candlestick indicates that the bulls are trying to hold the level. It is possible for buyers to compete with strong resistance in the moving averages. If the price declines from the 20-day exponential moving average ($16,820), the probability of a break below $16,256 increases. BTC is likely to dive towards the $16,000 and $15,476 support areas later on. Rather, if the price rises from the current level and rises above the moving averages, it will suggest a strong buy from the lower levels. It is possible that this could trigger a false rally to the $18,000-$18,388 region.
ETH continues to trade midway between the $1,150 anchor and the 20-day EMA ($1,218). This shows that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling in rallies.
The bears will try to push the price towards $1,150. This is a valuable supplement to watch out for in the near term. Because if it breaks, ETH could drop to $1,075, completing the downtrend. The bulls successfully defended this level on the previous two occasions. It’s possible that they’re trying to do that again. If they do, ETH is likely to extend its range-bound move to mid-$1,075 to $1,352 for a few more days. On the other hand, if the bears pull the price below $1,075, ETH is likely to drop to the spiritually critical level of $1,000 and then to the model target of $948.
Binance Coin (BNB)
BNB continues to trade in a tight range near the overhead resistance area of $250 to mid-$255. This shows that both bulls and bears are fighting for supremacy.
Usually, narrow ranges of this breed are followed by a sharp increase in volatility. However, it is difficult to argue the direction of the fracture. Therefore, it is more appropriate to wait for the break to occur before jumping. If buyers push the price above $255, a few short-term bears are likely to fall into the trap. They will then rush to close their positions. It is also possible that this could push BNB to the 50-day easy moving average ($272). On the contrary, if the price drops and dips below $236, BNB is likely to drop to $220. It is possible that this level will see a small reinforcement mission. However, if it gives way, it is possible for BNB to drop to $200.
XRP bounced off the reinforcement line of the symmetrical triangle on December 29. However, the bulls failed to initiate a recovery. The bears continued their dominance and pushed the price back to the mainstay on Dec. 30.
Both moving averages are true downwards and the relative strength index (RSI) is below 39. This shows that the path of least resistance is down. If the price drops below the reinforcement line, it will indicate that the bears have overpowered the bulls. It is possible for XRP to retest the June low of $0.29 later. Alternatively, if the price bounces back from the current level, the bulls will try to push XRP above the 20-day EMA ($0.36). If they do, it is possible for XRP to rise to the resistance line of the triangle.
The bulls made a weak attempt to defend the precious $0.07 support on Dec. 29. The bears continued the selling pressure and pushed DOGE below key foothold on Dec.
A break and close below $0.07 will complete a descending triangle pattern with a major negative. It is possible for DOGE to continue its decline later and retest the critical reinforcement near $0.05. If this pillar collapses, DOGE is likely to initiate the next leg of the downtrend. If the bulls want to avoid the decline, they will have to push the price above the $0.07 breakout level in a swift form. It is possible that this could trap aggressive bears. Also, it’s possible that this could cause a short squeeze. It is possible for DOGE to rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.09) first and then move up to $0.11.
ADA, MATIC, DOT, LTC and UNI analysis
ADA dropped below the support at $0.25 on Dec. 29, indicating a continuation of the bear trend. The decline has pulled the RSI into the very sell zone. It also indicates that a relief rally or consolidation is likely in the next few days.
Buyers have defended the foothold of the falling wedge pattern multiple times over the past few weeks. It is possible that they will try to do this again. If the price bounces off the reinforcement limit strongly, the bulls will attempt to push the ADA above the 20-day EMA ($0.27). If they are successful, it is possible for ADA to rise to the bear trend line. On the contrary, if the recovery at the reinforcement line is shallow, it will indicate a lack of demand by the bulls. The bears will then try to push the price below the reinforcement limit and pull ADA to $0.20.
MATIC is stuck in a wide range mid $0.69 to $1.05. The bears pushed the price below the immediate support of $0.75 on Dec. 30, closing the doors to $0.69.
In a range, traders usually buy at the support level and sell near the resistance. Therefore, aggressive buying of the drop to $0.69 is possible. A strong rebound from this buff will indicate that Polygon (MATIC) will continue its range-bound action for a little while longer. Contrary to this assumption, a weak rebound from $0.69 might discourage MATIC bears and increase the possibility of a collapse. If this happens, MATIC could start a fresh downward move to reach $0.52. If the bulls want to avoid the downtrend, they will have to push the MATIC price above the moving averages quickly.
DOT remains in a tight bear grip. The bulls are trying to stop the decline near $4.22. However, he failed to achieve a meaningful leap. This increases the probability that the downward movement will start again.
The next reinforcement on the downside is $4 followed by $3.60. This region saw a strong base mission mid-September-November 2020. For this reason, the bulls will again try to defend the region with all their strength. On the upside, a rally above the 20-day EMA ($4.65) will be the prime indicator of strength. It is possible for the DOT to attempt a true rally to the downtrend line later on. The bulls will have to overcome this drawback to signal a potential trend change.
LTC fell below the moving averages on December 27. Moreover, it continued to decline on December 28. The price bounced off the lows on Dec. 29 and reached the 20-day EMA ($68).
The bears will try to turn the moving averages into resistance. If they do, it is possible for LTC to drop and slide below the close support at $65. This is likely to continue to $61 without fail. This is a valuable level to watch in the near term. Because, if it does not hold, it is possible that the sale will accelerate and LTC will fall to $ 56. Conversely, if buyers push the price above the moving averages, it is possible for LTC to break out of the overhead resistance at $75.
UNI broke below the reinforcement limit of the symmetrical triangle formation on December 28. This indicates that the uncertainty amid the bulls and bears has been resolved in favor of the sellers.
The bulls tried to push the price back into the triangle on Dec. However, the bears held their ground. The downward sloping moving averages and RSI in the negative region suggest that the bears have the upper hand. If the price drops below $4.97, the next stop is likely $4.71 followed by $4.60. This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if UNI re-enters the triangle and rises above the moving averages.