This morning’s ADP jobs report for January missed expectations by a mile, showing a job loss of 301,000 vs. expectations for a gain of 200,000.
- The Omicron variant is shouldering the blame after the ADP reported the first negative jobs print since December 2020. The loss of 301,000 jobs in January compares to economist expectations for a gain of 200,000, and is a particularly massive turnaround from December’s 776,000 gain.
- The leisure and hospitality industries accounted for more than half of January’s job losses, posting a decline of 154,000.
- Stock, bond, and crypto prices aren’t really responding, however, as the White House has been busy prepping markets for some ugly jobs figures this week. One bad report caused by a spike in Covid-19 cases doesn’t seem enough to push the Fed off of its plan to begin hiking the Fed Funds rate in March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain modestly in the green. The 10-year Treasury yield is down one basis point at 1.79%. Bitcoin has dipped a bit since the print, now off 2% to $37.7K, with ether lower by 3% to $2,680.
- Coming Friday is the government report on January payrolls. For the moment, economists continue to expect a gain of 150,000 jobs, down modestly from December’s 199,000 advance, with the unemployment rate holding flat at 3.9%. For all of 2021, the U.S. added a whopping 6.4 million jobs – the best year on record as the economy rebounded from the 2020 pandemic shutdown.