Bitcoin price has returned to 2020 levels this year with the blow of Terra followed by FTX. After a year full of bankruptcies, all eyes are on 2023. Are we at the end of a bear market, could February be a game changer? Let’s take a look at what analysts are saying.
Could February 2023 be a game changer for Bitcoin?
The Bitcoin price had essentially fallen in value in 2022 before FTX’s sudden bankruptcy last month. Despite all efforts, BTC remained under pressure as investors expected a recovery throughout the year. Now all hope is in January, when we will move to a new page. However, as crypto analyst Daan Crypto noted, the first months of the year historically closed down for Bitcoin. Supporting his argument with information, the analyst states that since 2013, 60% of January months have resulted in negative returns. The positive news is that February is mostly ‘green’…
Historically, January isn't the best month for #Bitcoin with 60% of the months since 2013 ending up with a negative return.
We can also see how the percentage change on average in January is quite large. Both up and down.
Will January bring some volatility back into the market? pic.twitter.com/RmFJ86DtNq
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) December 28, 2022
In his analysis, Daan Crypto mentions that February is BTC’s most adequate ‘return’ month. “Besides that, February was one of the smoothest months for BTC. Keep in mind that this information is not a reliable indicator for future returns.” As for the analyst’s current Bitcoin price prediction, he said all eyes are on the $16.9-17,000 region, which has been rejecting prices for a while. BTC spent the month of December below this region.
$BTC Back in the "Christmas Range" between ~$16.7-16.9K.
The idea/feeling I had of a weak breakdown being a fake out seems to be accurate for now.
Eyes on the 16.9-17K area from here which has been rejecting price for some time now. https://t.co/UjXwIW9GyW pic.twitter.com/g4tbXbKr3l
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) December 28, 2022
What does on-chain data say about BTC?
As Bitcoin consolidates, another crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, suggested that the side of the trend could be determined by a move in the mid-$16,000 to $17,000 range. According to IntoTheBlock’s on-chain data, there are two major supply constraints at 16,600 and 17,000, respectively. Here 1.46 million addresses hold 915,000 and 730,000 Bitcoins, respectively.
#Bitcoin sits between two significant supply walls. One at $16,600 where 1.46 million addresses hold 915K #BTC and the other one at $17,000 where 1.27 million addresses hold 730K $BTC.
A sustained move outside of this area will likely determine the direction of the trend. pic.twitter.com/oGNdbcPV0k
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 26, 2022
Two precious resistance levels to break for rally
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who updated his analysis on this issue, says that the levels of $ 17,400 and $ 17,700 are critical. Here’s what they said in their latest YouTube post:
We’re looking at a situation where there’s some valuable resistance that we can focus on if we move up for real; As usual, we caught this resistance at $17,400 and we have another resistance around $17,700. If these two are broken, the acceleration can accelerate in the upper direction.
At the same time, the analyst warns that if Bitcoin drops below $16,600, the scenario could disrupt the market overall. This line represents bullish reinforcement that helps protect the price from a possible collapse. Elsewhere, crypto analyst Jim Wycoff noted that Bitcoin will likely end the year on a volatile path, as both bulls and bears are showing insufficient strength:
Price continues to move sideways and fluctuating. Neither the bulls nor the bears have a short-term technical advantage, suggesting that the same sideways move will continue in the short-term. Look for more active locations as the new year begins.
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“Bitcoin is preparing for a big and unexpected leap in 2023”
According to the assumptions of TechDev, one of the popular Twitter analysts, Bitcoin may start to make up for all its losses in 2022 next year. In a new analysis, TechDev says market sales in 2021 started in the second quarter of the year, not the November peak:
We start with the total value of the altcoin market, where I see the market divided into a cyclical set of regions, Correction > Accumulation > Markup. The chart below shows why I believe we are saving and what I can expect next. It also serves as further evidence of the correction that started in Q2 2021, breaking the local RSI uptrend as the previous correction.
RSI stands for “relative strength index” that analyzes Bitcoin’s candle oscillation over 14 periods. TechDev says the broader market structure mimics late 2016/early 2017.
He also adds that Bitcoin tends to follow the global liquidity “cycle.” TechDev thinks this cycle is illustrated by charting the Chinese 10-year bond yield (CN10Y) against the US dollar index (DXY).
Finally, the analyst says that the local tops of the chart have “fallen in steady form along the trendline” since 2014:
His next hit can predict the next Bitcoin/crypto peak. Cyclical timing over the last 20 years suggests that this could happen between late 2023 and mid-2024.
